Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 98979.765819 104308.216165 109631.201038 115344.208599 121298.641851 127318.161125 133859.818423
2025-09-28 89845.341329 97975.969420 106321.037471 115515.732224 125351.347985 135546.262733 146901.506662
2025-10-05 84558.691741 94716.573413 105364.621542 117336.771250 130400.204549 144199.305180 159854.837204
2025-10-12 80358.120668 92058.648257 104541.725377 118814.460510 134644.200466 151625.046972 171179.781596
2025-10-19 76516.646472 89414.451137 103389.518381 119603.707407 137842.610641 157669.094208 180793.964625
2025-10-26 72856.354218 86691.724321 101895.002779 119768.866200 140131.332945 162529.831929 188952.161425
2025-11-02 69856.498674 84514.618587 100830.648531 120244.809872 142617.355588 167490.607184 197131.521973
2025-11-09 66901.948440 82219.900490 99478.255063 120246.272595 144436.316518 171597.348961 204269.249868
2025-11-16 64946.114437 80974.619433 99235.059087 121435.676929 147546.482297 177127.071848 213010.638475
2025-11-23 62439.883932 78959.208792 97984.462949 121347.563202 149085.578939 180781.951143 219545.526291
2025-11-30 61088.113263 78251.073706 98213.587468 122950.404942 152569.398653 186678.102244 228695.600271
2025-12-07 59532.330397 77222.267557 97996.222820 123965.244430 155315.185225 191687.007316 236805.205007
2025-12-14 57568.885016 75645.269673 97082.920087 124122.482249 157037.546234 195514.337201 243580.257968
2025-12-21 55741.137219 74171.963085 96240.346484 124318.048146 158772.708771 199342.791205 250366.649189
2025-12-28 54909.386706 73902.276557 96841.074976 126254.768288 162609.719948 205695.856561 260210.455165
2026-01-04 53957.084593 73437.754816 97165.852306 127824.346123 165984.449592 211495.489317 269413.874649
2026-01-11 52714.257656 72555.958042 96929.588323 128662.378123 168435.866216 216167.901013 277262.838203
2026-01-18 51231.056530 71314.756089 96196.436869 128837.740343 170035.106527 219783.353347 283822.655421
2026-01-25 49977.773012 70329.833067 95750.814766 129342.983694 172022.332172 223864.961713 290961.941620
2026-02-01 48562.886542 69088.727526 94937.678379 129344.538073 173348.547193 227114.352516 297074.173885
2026-02-08 47769.825384 68641.807749 95123.825120 130607.051292 176260.108256 232337.086795 305657.675412
2026-02-15 46433.612960 67430.732793 94282.870908 130513.526180 177422.438470 235362.949574 311504.048265
2026-02-22 45911.946798 67295.781468 94832.790815 132214.692336 180880.617186 241282.679773 321007.886893